XRP is showing strength in its Wave 4 bounce following last week’s sharp sell-off. While short-term momentum is building, the larger downtrend hasn’t been broken yet, leaving the possibility of one final push lower before a true recovery can take hold. Wave 4 Relief Bounce Unfolds After Brutal Capitulation XRP is currently moving through a Wave 4 relief phase after last Thursday’s aggressive sell-off. According to CasiTrades, the intensity of that drop with RSI hitting multi-year lows suggests capitulation likely took place. However, it also raises the probability that the broader correction may still require one more wave down before fully completing. Related Reading: XRP Price To $1 Or $10? Analyst Warns Investors Of Possible Crash The rebound since that flush has shown strength, which is typical for a Wave 4 reaction after a deeply oversold move. So far, price has already reached the first Wave 4 target at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $1.52. This level also aligns with the macro 0.65 retracement, creating a strong confluence zone where temporary resistance would be expected during a bounce of this nature. There is still room for the relief to extend higher toward the $1.65 region, where the 0.5 retracement and macro 0.618 Fib converge. That level now stands as the key decision point. A sustained move above it would strengthen the recovery outlook, while rejection there would increase the likelihood of a wave down to complete the correction. $1.65: The Line In The Sand For XRP’s Next Big Move Analyst CasiTrades further explained that if price fails to reclaim and hold $1.65 as support, it would likely pave the way for a final impulsive leg lower, with downside targets sitting around $1.09 and potentially as deep as the $0.90 region. Related Reading: XRP Price Above $1.50 Could Flip Sentiment And Fuel Recovery She noted that the recent relief rally has already helped reset the RSI from extremely oversold conditions. As a result, a drop into those lower targets could form a bullish divergence on momentum indicators, which often marks strong long-term buying opportunities, if the setup materializes. On the other hand, if XRP successfully breaks above $1.65 and flips it into solid support, the outlook shifts. In that scenario, the focus would be on waiting for a confirmed back-test of the reclaimed level, using that strength as a more favorable and structured entry rather than chasing price prematurely. CasiTrades emphasized that this is not the moment for panic selling. XRP is hovering near the deeper end of a broader correction, and major technical levels across exchanges have already been tested. Thus, the anticipated final wave down either shortens or fails altogether, potentially marking the beginning of a stronger recovery phase. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
