BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Bear Market May Be Over: Compelling Evidence Points to Historic Rebound Global cryptocurrency markets are witnessing a significant shift in sentiment this week, as prominent analysts claim the Bitcoin bear market may be over. Following five consecutive weeks of decline, Bitcoin has printed its first weekly green candle, sparking intense debate among traders and investors about a potential trend reversal. This development, reported by BeInCrypto, coincides with critical historical timing that has previously marked major market bottoms. Analyzing the Bitcoin Bear Market End Signal The recent price action represents a crucial technical milestone. A weekly green candle after a prolonged downtrend often signals waning selling pressure. Consequently, market participants are scrutinizing this move with heightened attention. Furthermore, this price development aligns with a powerful historical pattern identified by market observers. Crypto analyst Coinvo Trading provides a compelling cyclical argument. Their analysis notes that in every prior market cycle, Bitcoin has bottomed exactly 23 months after reaching its all-time high (ATH). This pattern has held without exception throughout Bitcoin’s history. Significantly, the market currently sits precisely at that 23-month point from the November 2021 ATH of approximately $69,000. Historical Cycles and Technical Context Understanding Bitcoin’s market cycles requires examining past data. The cryptocurrency operates in multi-year phases of expansion and contraction, often driven by halving events and macroeconomic factors. The table below summarizes previous cycle bottoms relative to their ATHs: Cycle Peak (ATH) Subsequent Bottom Months from ATH to Bottom Drawdown Dec 2017 (~$20,000) Dec 2018 (~$3,200) 12 months ~84% Nov 2021 (~$69,000) Potential Nov 2023 23 months (projected) ~77% (from low) This time-based analysis gains further credibility from veteran trader Peter Brandt. Brandt, a respected figure with decades of experience in traditional and crypto markets, assessed that this 23-month cycle analysis is more persuasive than many other prevailing market narratives. His endorsement adds considerable weight to the technical observation. Expert Validation and Market Psychology Peter Brandt’s perspective is noteworthy due to his extensive background. He has successfully identified major market trends for over forty years. His focus on pure price action and chart patterns often cuts through speculative noise. Therefore, his agreement with the cyclical timing argument suggests a data-driven conclusion rather than mere hopeful speculation. Market psychology also plays a vital role at potential turning points. After a prolonged bear market, investor sentiment typically reaches extreme pessimism. This creates a foundation for a sustainable rebound when selling exhausts itself. The recent weekly green candle could be the first concrete sign of this exhaustion. Broader Market Implications and Evidence A confirmed end to the Bitcoin bear market would have profound implications for the entire digital asset ecosystem. Historically, Bitcoin leads the broader crypto market. A sustained Bitcoin rebound often triggers capital rotation into altcoins. Several on-chain metrics currently support the potential for a trend change: Exchange Outflows: Data shows coins moving from exchanges to long-term storage, reducing immediate sell pressure. MVRV Ratio: This metric, which compares market value to realized value, has spent extended time in a zone associated with past bottoms. Hash Rate Stability: Bitcoin’s network security remains near all-time highs, indicating strong fundamental health despite price weakness. Moreover, the macroeconomic environment is evolving. Central banks globally are nearing the end of aggressive interest rate hiking cycles. This shift could improve liquidity conditions for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. While not a direct catalyst, it provides a more favorable backdrop for recovery. Conclusion Multiple converging signals suggest the Bitcoin bear market may be over. The combination of a key weekly price reversal, a precise historical cycle timing of 23 months post-ATH, and validation from seasoned analysts like Peter Brandt creates a compelling case. While no single indicator guarantees a trend change, the alignment of these factors warrants serious consideration by investors. Market participants should monitor for follow-through buying and a break above key resistance levels to confirm this potential new phase. The evidence points toward a possible historic rebound, marking the end of a challenging downtrend for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. FAQs Q1: What does a ‘weekly green candle’ mean for Bitcoin? A weekly green candle means the price of Bitcoin closed higher at the end of the trading week than it opened. After five weeks of lower closes, this indicates a potential pause or reversal in selling momentum. Q2: How reliable is the 23-month cycle for predicting Bitcoin bottoms? This pattern has held true for previous cycles, but past performance does not guarantee future results. It is a historical observation that analysts use as one piece of evidence among many, not a definitive prediction tool. Q3: Who is Peter Brandt and why is his opinion significant? Peter Brandt is a veteran commodities and futures trader with over 40 years of experience. He is known for his classical charting analysis. His opinion carries weight due to his long-term, disciplined approach to market analysis. Q4: What other signs should I look for to confirm the bear market is over? Confirmation would include sustained price action above key moving averages (like the 200-week), increasing trading volume on up days, and improvement in broader market sentiment indicators beyond a single week’s move. Q5: Does the end of a Bitcoin bear market mean prices will go straight up? Not necessarily. Exiting a bear market often involves a base-building phase with volatility. The path to a new bull market typically includes retests of support levels and periods of consolidation before a sustained uptrend begins. This post Bitcoin Bear Market May Be Over: Compelling Evidence Points to Historic Rebound first appeared on BitcoinWorld .
