Summary Bitcoin, having closed 5 consecutive months in the "red zone," has brought the price into the range of interest ($57.8k–$70.8k) according to Fibonacci levels. As the "gold standard," IBIT demonstrates a renewal of institutional demand. The current price around $69,000 offers a mathematically sound trade with a 1-to-4 risk-reward ratio and a long-term target at the historical high of $126,223. Key threats to the thesis remain the Fed's "hawkish" rhetoric, the banking lobby against the Genius Act bill, and the lack of de-escalation in the Iran conflict. Investment thesis For crypto investors who believe in Bitcoin's ( BTC-USD ) growth potential, the start of 2026 has not been what they expected. Over the past 5 months, there has been a negative change in the price of the leading cryptocurrency, matching the record bear market of 2018-2019. Consequently, the dynamics of spot ETFs on Bitcoin, where the "gold standard" is the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ), is also negatively affected. The fundamental background remains negative, with the situation in Iran showing no signs of de-escalation, Bitcoin's price may attempt to continue its decline to complete a deep correction to the $50,000–$55,000 price zone. Nevertheless, my long-term objectives remain unchanged, with a renewed all-time high of $126,223. At the same time, it is not certain that the market has not already reversed, finding its cyclical bottom at $60,000. If we assume that the current price of Bitcoin at $69,000 will be the entry point for IBIT, the potential risk/reward ratio is 1 to 4, in my opinion, a cost-effective bet on the fundamental growth of the cryptocurrency's value. Given this, my rating for IBIT remains at "Buy", because the current price of Bitcoin provides a favorable entry point into the market with a high risk-reward ratio. My Previous Thesis and Main Arguments I compared this fund with its main competitor among option players , NEOS Bitcoin High Income ETF ( BTCI ). The main point was that if the market moves into a phase of Bitcoin recovery growth, then IBIT will do better than the BTCI options mix, where some of the profits get cut off when the price goes up aggressively. In addition, earlier I believed that in 2026 we would see a potential renewal of Bitcoin's historical high, reaching a price range of $130,000-$150,000. The actual results turned out to be different, and since then, IBIT has shown a negative return of -11.57%. This downward movement in the cryptocurrency market is mainly driven by the potential change in the Fed's rhetoric towards tightening monetary policy (the Warsh effect) as well as a general change in investor risk appetite , reflects market participants' concerns and fears about the future fate of any risky assets (attributable to increased volatility in stock markets and the VIX index). IBIT Overview and Capital Dynamics IBIT is the largest Bitcoin fund, the mechanism of which is based on physical ownership of cryptocurrency, whereby each share is backed by a specific number of tokens held in custody (this service is provided by Coinbase Custody using hardware wallets). Under BlackRock's management is $52.77 billion in investor capital, exceeding the combined total of its four closest competitors ($28.52 billion). Its commission is 0.25%, lower than that of the Gryscale Bitcoin Trust ( GBTC ) ETF, yet equal to that of the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ETF ( FBTC ). Profile of ETF Bitcoin Bitcoin price is the main catalyst for IBIT growth, affecting the dynamics of customer inflows and outflows. AUM has seen positive growth over the past year, with inflows of $22.98 billion, just as it did over the past six months ($3.81 billion), three months ($59.32 million), and last month ($824.56 million). Nevertheless, from mid-October, the process slowed significantly, demonstrating a greater outflow of funds. The situation only changed at the end of February, and inflows began to prevail. The inflow of funds over the last 5 days alone amounted to $770.8 million. IBIT Fund Flows Charts The inflow of capital from institutional investors is an important condition for increasing the attractiveness of IBIT. Dynamics of inflows and outflows from this type of client depend on a stable environment, which requires the adoption of all principles of the Genius Act. Based on the latest news, President Donald Trump has criticized American banks for slowing down the adoption of major regulatory changes in the cryptocurrency sector. Banks and Wall Street reps say this law is a threat because it could cause clients to move their money out of traditional bank accounts and deposits, and that could slow down lending to the real economy. The bill has been stalled since the January meeting of the Senate Banking Committee, with proposed amendments calling for the elimination of fees for stablecoin transactions. The dynamics of institutional investor inflows and outflows prove that this law affects IBIT's growth potential and Bitcoin prices. During the past 12 months, a total of 1,595 institutional investors joined IBIT , whereas 527 institutional investors withdrew funds. There was a net inflow of 1,068 institutional investors with large capital, with a net inflow of $5.36 billion. Major capital inflows into IBIT were still seen in Q4 2024, whereas Q4 2025 saw the largest outflow of funds, at $968 million. Net institutional capital inflows, though, remained positive at $1.25 billion. IBIT Institutional Buying and Selling by Quarter Technical Analysis of Bitcoin Because of the direct correlation between IBIT's price and Bitcoin, to figure out the fund's price situation, you should check out the BTC-USD chart. Prices are moving within an aggressive downward trend channel, encountering a general support zone of $49,577–$60,760. The lower part of this range, I believe, will be more crucial in preventing prices from falling further. At the same time, earlier the support zone was $74,434–$78,197, and in the beginning of February it was broken, acting as resistance now. It is only when the price returns above this level, that will confirm the exit from the trend channel, will the reversal of Bitcoin from the phase of deep correction to recovery growth be confirmed. Bitcoin Technical Analysis on the 1W Timeframe. Source: Tradingview. On a monthly timeframe, though, Bitcoin's looking more interesting, telling us that the price has hit the discount zone between the 0.50 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels, spread across the asset's global cycles. The price zone between $57,802 and $70,876 is of interest for long-term purchases, coinciding with the token's current price situation. Additionally, based on current prices, Bitcoin is trading at its 200-week moving average on the 1W chart, providing support and contributing to a potential technical rebound. Bitcoin Technical Analysis on the 1M Timeframe. Source: Tradingview Justification for the "Buy" Rating for IBIT through Technical Analysis of Bitcoin The rationale for IBIT's "Buy" rating is related to the revision of the main target price, earlier set in the range of $130,000–$150,000, and now reduced to $126,000. This is due to a shift in strategy, from one that was previously based on speculative growth to one that is now more realistically based on a model of retesting the cyclical high. The level coincides with the high recorded in October 2025 and now represents a large pool of liquidity. Although the same level of $74,000 may prove to be a serious obstacle, if the weekly candle closes confidently above it, the bearish thesis (which, I believe, had a target of $50,000) shall be completely invalidated. Furthermore, a resistance level of $74,000 has become a trigger for a potential short squeeze, since it is backed by a significant volume of sellers' stop losses. A price break above this level could trigger these stops automatically, further fueling Bitcoin's growth. What's more, the former historical high (2024) is located right here, with many long-term holders still stuck in their positions. The pressure on sellers is driven by their desire to break even, and this explains the current stalemate. Furthermore, over the past two weeks ( February 23 to March 8 ), inflows of $1.355 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs were recorded in this current price zone, indicating investors' intention to buy up price drops below $70,000. As a result, there is a strong accumulation zone forming here, acting as support and a foundation for future growth. Justification for the "Buy" Rating for IBIT through Fundamental Analysis of Bitcoin Analyzing the fundamental factors for Bitcoin's growth with the aim of retesting the historic level of 126,000, we should consider the macroeconomic reversal observed through the global M2 indicator. This digital token has always been a barometer of liquidity, going up in price when global liquidity grows. While there are some risks for the Fed's monetary policy, rising government debt and the need to service it will cause money supply to expand in 2026. Correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity has always been high, which is why a 10-15% increase in global liquidity could cause cryptocurrency to rise again to its historic peak. Only in 2025, growth in global liquidity amounted to $9.49 trillion , or 10.71%. Looking at the previous bear cycle in 2022-2023, on the contrary, a decline in global M2 liquidity preceded it. This is why the current divergence has signaled that Bitcoin is expected to resume growth following the index. Global M2 Money Supply It is also worth considering the fundamental factor of regulatory arbitrage surrounding the adoption of the Genius Act, which is not a setback but a sign of a compressed spring that will lead to Bitcoin's growth. Legalization of the law will create a legitimate gateway for banking capital. Opposition from the lobbying efforts of the largest US banks proves the high practical significance of the law, because it creates competition for customer funds. It is inevitable that a compromise will be found (as is typical for US legislation), enabling Bitcoin to transition to the status of a strategic reserve asset. Furthermore, Polymarket's odds that this law will be passed in 2026 are currently above 50% . If the Genius Act is passed, this will allow institutional investors to allocate capital for the purchase of digital tokens, generating exponential demand for them despite low liquidity on the exchanges themselves. Right now, the number of Bitcoins on crypto exchanges is the lowest it's been in years, a sign that whales who believe in its future growth are holding on to them. Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Moreover, the ETF accounts for only 6% of the total volume of Bitcoin in circulation, thus reducing market volatility during downturns, because institutional investors buy up price drops. Additionally, an increasing number of companies are considering holding cryptocurrency in their accounts, driving up the price. One should also be aware of the significant reduction in daily Bitcoin issuance, whilst net inflows into ETFs such as IBIT continue to grow, resulting in long-term demand exceeding the volume of tokens mined, thus creating an imbalance between supply and demand. Furthermore, Bitcoin's mining cycle is declining and gradually becoming smaller, accounting for approximately 14,000 tokens per month (that is how many new coins enter the market). Monthly Issuance in BTC Risks to the Investment Thesis due to Fundamental Factors Currently, purchases of IBIT and Bitcoin are taking place amid a "perfect storm," suggesting a number of fundamental risks that could prevent the scenario of growth to $126,000 from materializing. Firstly, a scenario in which the Fed moves to tighten monetary policy is becoming increasingly likely, not only due to the "Warsh effect", as well as increased inflationary risks (owing to rising oil and gas prices caused by the escalation of the conflict in Iran). If this happens, it will lead to both higher borrowing costs, resulting in reduced market liquidity and lower investor appetite for risky assets, but also a stronger US dollar, directly putting pressure on cryptocurrency prices. Secondly, the banks' resistance to the Genius Act poses a regulatory risk. There may be significant amendments to the bill, preventing the full legalization of stablecoins and simplifying the entry of institutional capital. Lobbying is likely to come from banks, citing threats to their deposit outflows, the potential for which, in their view, could lead to a banking crisis in the US economy. The bill is likely to remain frozen until the end of 2026, and a significant outflow of institutional capital already invested in IBIT is possible. Thirdly, one should not ignore the potential increase in geopolitical risks if there is no de-escalation in Iran. Under these circumstances, risk appetite among investors will not return, oil prices will not fall back to their original levels, which will heighten the threat of inflation and tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. The result would be an outflow of liquidity from the cryptocurrency market, impacting the price of Bitcoin and IBIT's AUM. Conclusion There is no doubt that the current decline in Bitcoin's price is a sign of a protracted correction reminiscent of the bearish cycle of 2018-2019. The fundamental basis of that period cannot be compared to the current one, though, since the cryptocurrency market has undergone a long period of transformation and improvement. Right now, the price of Bitcoin is in a "discount" zone, so based on technical analysis and Fibonacci levels, there’s a good chance to get into the market by buying the IBIT spot ETF. Even though a bunch of fundamental risk factors could push the technical correction to around $50,000–$55,000, long-term growth potential is limited, however, by the historical high of $126,000. The 1:4 risk-reward ratio therefore makes it an economically viable trade to bet on Bitcoin price growth through the purchase of IBIT. Nevertheless, we must bear in mind that the current price environment for cryptocurrency assets depends not on the adoption of blockchain technology and concepts, yet on psychological factors that take into account events in global politics and the US economy
