Circle’s USDC stablecoin has overtaken Tether’s USDT in transaction volume for the first time since 2019, according to a research note from Japanese investment bank Mizuho. The report shows that adjusted USDC transaction volume since the start of the year has reached approximately $2.2 trillion, compared with around $1.3 trillion for USDT. This shift means USDC now represents roughly 64% of combined adjusted transaction volume between the two stablecoins, reversing a long-standing trend in which USDT consistently dominated market usage between 2019 and 2025. The data highlights a notable change in stablecoin activity, suggesting that USDC may be gaining momentum in everyday transaction flows across crypto markets and digital payments. Why Transaction Volume Matters More Than Market Cap Mizuho analysts argue that transaction activity is a more meaningful indicator of stablecoin influence than market capitalization. While market cap reflects how much value is held in a stablecoin, transaction volume reveals how frequently the asset is actually used across exchanges, trading platforms, and payment infrastructure. The stablecoin that becomes the most widely used in daily transactions is likely to emerge as the dominant settlement layer in the digital asset ecosystem. From this perspective, the shift in transaction leadership toward USDC could signal a deeper change in how institutions and market participants are choosing stablecoins for transfers and settlement. However, the broader stablecoin landscape still shows a different picture when capitalization is considered. USDT maintains a clear lead with an estimated $184 billion market value, while USDC’s capitalization is around $79 billion. Regulatory Uncertainty Still Shapes the Stablecoin Market While market data points to changing usage patterns, the regulatory framework for stablecoins in the United States remains uncertain. The CLARITY Act, which passed the U.S. House of Representatives, is currently stalled in the Senate due to disagreements over stablecoin yields, ethics rules, and the treatment of tokenized securities. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated that the chamber may prioritize other legislation before digital asset market rules, making near-term progress on stablecoin regulation unlikely. Regulation could play a significant role in shaping the future balance between major stablecoin issuers. Circle is a U.S.-based company, while Tether operates from the British Virgin Islands, creating different regulatory dynamics for the two firms. Adjusted Volume Shows Real Stablecoin Demand Another important element highlighted by Mizuho is the concept of adjusted transaction volume. This metric removes internal transfers and automated transactions, offering a clearer picture of genuine market demand rather than raw on-chain activity. Because of this adjustment, analysts consider the metric a more reliable measure of real economic usage. Whether USDC’s lead represents a lasting structural shift or a temporary change in market flows will likely become clearer over the coming quarters as transaction data continues to evolve.
