March CPI and PPI both landed, painting a picture of energy-driven inflation acceleration heading into the April 29 FOMC decision. March CPI: Energy-driven acceleration — April 10, 2026 The Bureau of Labor Statistics published March Consumer Price Index data on April 10. The all-items index rose 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.3% in February, and increased 3.3% year-over-year before seasonal adjustment, a significant step up from February’s 2.4%. The primary driver was energy: the energy index rose 10.9% in March, with gasoline prices up 21.2%, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the monthly all-items increase. Core inflation (the all-items index less food and energy) rose 2.6% over the past 12 months, with shelter up 3.0% year-over-year. The acceleration from 2.4% to 3.3% is the headline number traders are now mapping directly onto the April 28–29 FOMC meeting. The question is whether policymakers treat energy-driven inflation as transitory or as a signal that the rate path for the second half of 2026 requires reassessment. The Fed held at 3.50%–3.75% at the March 18 meeting, revised its core inflation forecast to 2.7% for 2026, and explicitly flagged geopolitical uncertainty and oil price pressures as key risks to the outlook. Rate-sensitive assets have historically responded to CPI surprises and Fed decisions in both directions. BTC/USD , ETH/USD , and all dollar-denominated pairs on Kraken Pro are the most relevant markets through this period. March PPI: Below expectations, but annual rate accelerated — April 14, 2026 The Bureau of Labor Statistics released March Producer Price Index data on April 14. Final demand prices rose 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, below the consensus expectation of 1.1%, with the increase driven entirely by a 1.6% advance in final demand goods prices. Final demand services were unchanged. On an annual basis, PPI rose 4.0% for the twelve months ended in March, up from 3.4% in February and the largest twelve-month advance since February 2023. The muted monthly print was taken as a partial relief by markets, though analysts noted that March data likely captured only the initial phase of the energy shock, with further pass-through into transportation, manufacturing, and logistics costs expected in subsequent months. Economists estimated that core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred gauge, releasing April 30) rose approximately 0.2% in March, which would translate to a 3.1% annual rate. That figure will be confirmed on April 30, alongside the ECB decision. Relevant on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD , ETH/USD , and macro-sensitive USD pairs. Q1 2026 bank earnings: Six reports, six beats — April 13–15, 2026 The core of Q1 2026 earnings season delivered across the board this week, with all six major banks reporting results that exceeded analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings per share. Goldman Sachs reported EPS of $17.55 on revenues of $17.23 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase in earnings per share. Investment banking fees rose 48% year-over-year to $2.84 billion, driven by a significant increase in completed M&A volumes and strong equity capital markets activity. JPMorgan Chase posted EPS of $5.94 against a consensus of $5.49, with revenues of $50.5 billion, up 10% year-over-year. Markets revenues rose 20% to $11.6 billion, supported by strength across fixed income, commodities, and currencies. Net interest income reached $25.5 billion, up 9% year-over-year. Citigroup reported EPS of $3.06 on revenues of $24.63 billion, its best quarterly revenue in a decade and a 56% year-over-year increase in earnings per share. Fixed income revenues rose 13% to $5.2 billion, with equities up 39% to $2.1 billion. Wells Fargo posted EPS of $1.60 on revenues of $21.4 billion, up 6% year-over-year, with average loans rising 10% and average deposits up 6%. The bank returned $4 billion to shareholders through share repurchases in the quarter. Morgan Stanley reported EPS of $2.68 on revenues of $17.89 billion, beating consensus estimates. Bank of America reported EPS of $0.98 on revenues of $28.37 billion, also ahead of expectations. Taken collectively, the picture from this week’s results is one of resilient institutional conditions: trading desks benefited from elevated volatility driven by geopolitical uncertainty and the energy shock, investment banking pipelines remained active, and credit quality held broadly steady. For traders using bank earnings as a proxy for institutional risk appetite, the collective signal this week was constructive, though forward guidance language across several institutions flagged macro uncertainty as a continued watch item heading into Q2. Relevant on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD , ETH/USD , and macro-sensitive USD pairs. Upcoming events: CME and Deribit BTC/ETH monthly options expiry — April 24, 2026 The final Friday of April brings the monthly options expiry for BTC and ETH on both CME and Deribit. The most recent Deribit weekly expiry, on April 10, settled approximately $2.2 billion in notional across BTC and ETH contracts. April 24 represents the monthly settlement, typically the largest expiry event of any given month. This expiry arrives immediately ahead of the most macro-intensive stretch of the month (FOMC April 29, PCE and ECB April 30), meaning positioning into and out of the expiry may reflect traders managing risk around those central bank events as much as the settlement mechanics themselves. Options expiry events create conditions, not outcomes. Market makers adjust delta hedges in the days surrounding settlement, and the relationship between spot prices and the distribution of open interest can influence intraday behavior around the settlement window. BTC/USD and ETH/USD spot and derivatives markets on Kraken Pro are most relevant. FOMC rate decision — April 28–29, 2026 The Federal Open Market Committee meets April 28–29, with the decision and press conference on April 29. This is the most consequential scheduled event in the remainder of the month. The Fed held at 3.50%–3.75% at the March 18 meeting, raised its core inflation forecast to 2.7% for 2026, and explicitly flagged Middle East conflict and elevated oil prices as key sources of uncertainty. The March CPI print, a 3.3% year-over-year headline figure driven by a 10.9% energy surge, landed after that meeting and is now the primary new data point before April 29. Traders are assessing two scenarios heading into the decision. If policymakers read energy-driven inflation as a temporary external shock consistent with holding at current rates without revision to the rate path, markets may interpret that as status quo. If the March CPI and the subsequent PPI acceleration are treated as evidence of broadening inflationary pressure requiring a more cautious approach to any prospective easing, that recalibrates expectations for the second half of 2026. March retail sales data, releasing April 21, arrives in the pre-FOMC window and will add a consumer demand dimension to the picture before the committee convenes. Historically, rate-sensitive assets have responded to Fed decisions and accompanying guidance in both directions. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. BTC/USD , ETH/USD , and all dollar-denominated spot, margin, and futures pairs on Kraken Pro are relevant. ECB rate decision — April 30, 2026 The European Central Bank’s Governing Council meets April 29–30, with the decision and President Lagarde’s press conference on April 30, the day after the FOMC, and the same day as the PCE release. The ECB held all three key rates unchanged at its March 19 meeting, with the deposit facility remaining at 2.0%. The Governing Council raised its headline inflation forecast to 2.6% for 2026 and cut its GDP growth projection to 0.9% for the year, citing the impact of the Middle East conflict on commodity markets, real incomes, and business confidence. The April 30 decision arrives with the same energy inflation dynamic in play across the eurozone. Lagarde’s press conference language on the balance between inflation vigilance and growth risk will be the primary signal for traders in EUR-denominated markets. The FOMC and ECB decisions falling on consecutive days, with PCE also releasing April 30, makes the final week of the month a concentrated macro event window. Past market behavior around central bank decisions is not a reliable indicator of future results. Relevant on Kraken Pro: BTC/EUR , ETH/EUR , and EUR-denominated pairs. Also this period Advance retail sales for March release on April 21, rescheduled from April 16 by the Census Bureau, arriving one week before the FOMC and providing a direct read on consumer demand resilience under current energy price conditions. The PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, releases April 30 alongside the ECB decision. Weekly US initial jobless claims print each Thursday (April 16 and April 23), maintaining a continuous labor market temperature check heading into month-end. Closing context This week’s bank earnings collectively confirmed that institutional conditions remained resilient through Q1 despite the energy shock and elevated macro uncertainty. The question the remainder of April poses is whether the inflation data (CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, PPI at 4.0% year-over-year) changes the Federal Reserve’s rate path assessment when it meets on April 29. The ECB follows the next day. For traders with exposure to USD or EUR-denominated markets, having clear scenario thinking before that two-day window is more valuable than reacting to either decision in isolation. Explore markets on Kraken Pro This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risk. The post Earnings season delivered – now traders watch the Fed appeared first on Kraken Blog .
