The crypto industry’s most important US market structure bill is entering a narrowing window in Washington, with Galaxy Digital putting the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year at roughly 50-50. The firm’s central argument is not that one issue alone threatens the bill, but that too many unresolved questions still need to be settled in sequence, on a calendar that is quickly tightening. In a research note published April 22, Galaxy said the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 is now in “endgame stage” after passing the House in July 2025 with bipartisan support and spending months in Senate negotiations. The immediate focus is the Senate Banking Committee, which had been expected to announce a markup for the last week of April. But that timeline appears to be slipping. According to Galaxy, Sen. Thom Tillis, a key negotiator on stablecoin rewards language, called on Monday for delaying the markup until May. May Could Be The Last Chance For Crypto’s CLARITY Act Galaxy framed the bill’s prospects in unusually blunt terms: “In our view, the odds of CLARITY being signed into law in 2026 are roughly 50-50, and possibly lower, though others at Galaxy are more optimistic. The uncertainty stems not from any single issue but from the number of unresolved questions that must be settled, in sequence, under severe time pressure.” The report argues that a markup in early or mid-May would still leave a viable path, but not much margin for error. “If the markup slips past mid-May, the probability of enactment in 2026 drops sharply,” Galaxy wrote. “The remaining legislative calendar simply does not easily accommodate the full five-step process described above, particularly given the competing demands on floor time.” In the firm’s view, a July floor vote is still theoretically possible, but only with “extraordinary political will and coordination.” The procedural burden is significant. From committee markup, the bill would still need to clear a 60-vote Senate floor threshold, then be reconciled with the Agriculture Committee’s version, then reconciled again with the House-passed CLARITY Act, before reaching the president’s desk. Galaxy said each step consumes time that the Senate may not have in abundance, especially with Iran military authorization debates, the unresolved DHS funding standoff, and a backlog of nominations competing for floor space. The best-known sticking point remains stablecoin rewards language, where banks and crypto firms have been fighting over whether exchanges can offer incentives tied to stablecoin holdings and usage. Galaxy said a compromise being negotiated by Tillis and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks would still ban rewards paid “solely for holding” a stablecoin while allowing narrower, activity-based incentives tied to payments, transfers, or platform usage. But the text has not yet been released, and until it is, the committee’s 48-hour notice clock cannot start. Galaxy also made clear that stablecoin yield is only part of the problem. The note highlighted several other live issues in Senate negotiations, including the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act’s protections for noncustodial software developers, ethics provisions related to government officials’ crypto holdings, concerns over Section 505’s impact on SEC exemptive relief for tokenization, and the political question of SEC commissioner vacancies. None of those is necessarily fatal on its own. Together, they create a far more fragile timeline. Notably, US Senator Bernie Moreno is sharing a similar position like Galaxy Digital. When was asked about the timeline for crypto market structure legislation, he said: “I think we’re going to get it done by the end of May.” But the Ohio Republican also warned last month that if the Clarity Act isn’t passed by May , crypto legislation could be off the table for the foreseeable future. NEW: At an event in DC this evening, Senator @berniemoreno was asked about the timeline for crypto market structure legislation. “I think we’re going to get it done by the end of May,” he said. The Ohio Republican warned last month that if the Clarity Act isn’t passed by May,… https://t.co/wKkIwF7tBT — Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) April 22, 2026 The report is broadly favorable on the substance of the legislation. Galaxy called CLARITY “a strong bill both on technical terms and as a policy matter,” arguing that it would establish jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC , define pathways for tokens to be treated as non-securities once sufficiently decentralized, and create the kind of durable legal framework that institutional capital has long lacked. It also warned that the post-midterm outlook could be materially worse. A change in control of either chamber, Galaxy said, would likely produce different committee chairs, different priorities, and a much less hospitable path for crypto legislation. That is why the near-term milestones now matter so much. Galaxy said the next signals to watch are the release of Tillis’s revised stablecoin text, Chairman Tim Scott’s markup announcement, the size and bipartisan character of any committee vote, and whether Senate leadership allocates floor time before the July 4 recess. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $2.58 trillion.
