The U.S. Treasury has extended a sanctions waiver allowing the sale of Russian crude already loaded on tankers for another month, keeping more oil available to global buyers as energy markets remain tense over shipping disruption near the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the general license from the Office of Foreign Assets Control would help stabilize the physical crude market and ensure oil reaches countries facing energy pressure. The waiver was first issued in March, renewed in April, and has now been extended for a third month. The decision comes as Brent crude trades near $108.73 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate trades near $101.98. Prices have pulled back from earlier highs above $112 for Brent after President Donald Trump said he would hold off on a planned military strike on Iran, giving markets some room to price in possible diplomatic talks. Russian Oil Waiver Keeps Supply Available The waiver applies to Russian crude that was already loaded at sea. It allows any country to buy those barrels for another month, even as broader sanctions remain in force against Russia’s energy sector. The Treasury said the license is aimed at preventing a sharper supply shock while Middle Eastern flows face disruption. Bessent told lawmakers earlier that more than 10 vulnerable countries had requested continued sanctions relief to avoid tighter energy conditions. India is likely to be one of the main beneficiaries. Indian refiners have been major buyers of discounted Russian crude since sanctions redirected trade flows away from Western markets. The extended license gives Indian buyers more time to secure cargoes already on the water while Brent and WTI prices remain high. The policy also has a currency angle. India imports most of its crude, so higher oil prices can pressure the rupee through a larger import bill. Continued access to Russian supply may help refiners manage costs, while traders watching the INR/RUB exchange rate are also focused on how energy settlement flows affect demand for both currencies. INR/RUB Traders Watching Energy Settlement Flows The extended waiver is also drawing attention from forex traders monitoring the Indian rupee and Russian ruble relationship more closely. As India continues purchasing discounted Russian crude, settlement activity between refiners, banks, and commodity firms may increase demand for direct INR/RUB transactions rather than relying entirely on the U.S. dollar. Market participants are now watching whether sustained energy trade between India and Russia could influence medium-term currency trends, especially if crude prices remain elevated through the summer. Traders looking for technical levels and longer-term projections can follow the latest INR/RUB forecast and outlook as oil flows and sanctions policy continue shaping demand for both currencies. Brent and WTI React to Hormuz Risk Oil prices remain driven by the conflict around Iran and the reduced movement of cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz. The route is one of the world’s busiest energy chokepoints, and disruption there can quickly affect global crude and fuel markets. Brent and WTI eased after Trump delayed military action, but the market remains sensitive to any change in shipping conditions. Commercial inventories have come under pressure, and rerouted cargoes can raise freight costs for buyers. OPEC has lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.17 million barrels per day from 1.38 million. The cut reflects concern that high fuel costs may reduce consumption and slow activity in energy-sensitive economies. The U.K. has also loosened some rules around Russian oil refined in third countries, allowing imports of diesel and jet fuel produced from Russian crude outside Russia. That move shows how governments are trying to balance sanctions policy with domestic energy costs. Ruble Strength Linked to Oil Revenue The Russian ruble has gained about 12% against the U.S. dollar since the start of April, making it one of the strongest currencies this quarter. The USD/RUB rate has moved near 71 to 72 rubles per dollar, its strongest area since February 2023. Source: X Higher oil prices have supported Russia’s foreign currency inflows. Major Russian exporters reportedly increased net foreign currency sales to about $7.3 billion, giving the ruble additional support. Capital controls inside Russia have also helped sustain the currency. Restrictions on moving money abroad, combined with interest rates near 21%, have kept domestic demand for rubles firm. Concurrently, the trade shifts with China have added another layer, with much of the bilateral trade moving into rubles and yuan.
