Litecoin (LTC) has slipped beneath the $90 level, raising concerns among investors, but several technical and onchain signals suggest that a bullish reversal could be taking shape. While the current price action may seem weak, analysts are pointing to a shift in market sentiment and upcoming macro events that could pave the way for a significant rally in the months ahead. Market Activity Suggests Buyer Dominance Is Returning One of the clearest signs of a potential bullish turnaround is seen in the 90-day Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD). This metric, which measures the balance between buy and sell pressure, turned positive for the first time since December 2024. The flip to a “taker buy dominant” environment indicates that market participants are stepping in to accumulate LTC at current price levels. The return of buy-side dominance often marks the early stages of a trend reversal and suggests that selling pressure is beginning to subside. ETF Speculation Adds Fuel to the Fire Further boosting bullish sentiment is the growing optimism around a potential Litecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). According to Bloomberg analysts, there is a 95% probability that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will approve LTC, SOL, and XRP ETFs by October 2. Such approval would mark a major milestone for Litecoin, opening the door for increased institutional participation and broader retail access. The market often reacts positively in anticipation of such regulatory developments, which could provide a meaningful catalyst if confirmed. Seasonal Weakness Could Delay Immediate Gains Despite these positive indicators, historical trends suggest caution in the short term. Data reveals that August and September have consistently been Litecoin’s weakest months, delivering average returns of -6.99% and -5.06% respectively since 2012. However, these months are typically followed by a strong recovery, with November standing out as the most profitable period for LTC historically, boasting an average return of 94.79%. If the anticipated ETF approval aligns with Litecoin’s seasonal pivot, the convergence of timing and sentiment could amplify the upside. Price Structure Echoes 2024 Breakout Pattern Technically, Litecoin’s daily chart is mimicking its 2024 setup, when a Q1 rally was followed by a correction throughout Q2. This year, the price has once again retested a significant demand zone that served as a launchpad for a breakout in late 2024. If LTC continues to accumulate within this zone, it may soon challenge the descending trendline that has contained its price for several months. A successful breakout above the trendline, accompanied by a reclaim of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, would provide a strong confirmation of bullish momentum heading into Q4. Strategic Opportunity or Risk? While price weakness persists for now, multiple layers of technical and fundamental signals suggest that current levels may present a strategic accumulation opportunity rather than a warning sign. With institutional interest growing and technical setups pointing to historical parallels, the path forward for Litecoin could become significantly more optimistic if conditions align in the coming weeks.
