Summary Bitcoin failed its second attempt at a $70,000 breakout. Institutional investors, including Michael Saylor and Anthony Pompliano, are continuing to "buy the dip" and increase their BTC holdings. The medium to long-term technical outlook is starkly divided, with forecasts suggesting a painful crash to $40,000–$50,000 or a significant recovery toward $150,000. By Zain Vawda Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) finds itself at a crossroads, having recorded its second failed attempt at breaking above the $70,000 level. Having flirted with the $70,000 handle yesterday, Bitcoin has since retraced, trading near $67,800 as investors grapple with the fallout of escalating tensions in the Middle East. The tensions in the Middle East have seen risk-off sentiment dominate the agenda, while a stronger US dollar and rate cut expectations being pared back are also weighing on Bitcoin. This concern is echoed when looking at the fear and greed index, which is hovering in extreme fear territory at present. Source: FinancialJuice The $70,000 rejection and geopolitical headwinds The primary story for Bitcoin today is the sharp rejection at the $70,000 resistance level. After a robust 4% rally on Monday driven by renewed spot ETF inflows and a shift back toward risk-on sentiment in the Asian and European sessions, the momentum hit a wall. The catalyst for the pullback appears to be the "melt-down" in global stock markets triggered by escalating conflict involving Iran. Traditionally viewed by some as "digital gold," Bitcoin’s behavior today more closely mirrored that of a high-risk asset. As geopolitical uncertainty spiked, traders moved toward the safety of the US dollar and physical gold (which has climbed toward $5,247 per ounce), although gold prices saw a selloff today as prices dropped around 5%+. Can the “buy the dip” mentality prove to be the saving grace? Michael Saylor made his feelings clear today when he announced a fresh Bitcoin purchase. He is not the only one who is involved in institutional buying. Strategy ( MSTR ) (formerly MicroStrategy): Led by Michael Saylor, the firm completed its 101st Bitcoin purchase, adding 3,015 BTC for approximately $204 million. This brings their total treasury to a staggering 720,737 BTC. ProCap Financial ( BRR ): Under Anthony Pompliano, ProCap added 450 BTC to its balance sheet, raising its total holdings to 5,457 coins. While the "paper price" is suffering due to macro fears, the "on-chain" reality shows long-term holders are not distributing. Instead, the supply of freely circulating coins continues to tighten, which could magnify the next move upward once the geopolitical dust settles. Technical Outlook: A "Bull Trap" or a Breakout? The short-term outlook remains neutral with a bearish bias. Technical analysts point to immediate support levels at $66,396 (50-day MA) and $65,000. If these fail to hold, a revisit to the $63,000 range is likely. A break and four-hour candle close above the $70,000 mark could open the door for a move toward $71,673 before the $75,000 handle comes into focus. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, March 3, 2026 Source: TradingView.com The long-term forecasts, however, present a starkly divided view: The Bearish Correction: Elliott Wave is flashing a warning that Bitcoin may be entering a "Wave 2" correction. This model suggests a potential "bull trap" relief rally back toward $100,000, followed by a final, painful crash to the $40,000–$50,000 range to wash out late-cycle leverage. The Bullish Divergence: Contrarily, the "Harmonic Oscillator" and Bitcoin’s valuation relative to gold. With Bitcoin currently trading at a significant discount compared to gold’s market cap, historical Z-score data suggests that BTC could be primed for a 150% to 300% recovery within the next year, potentially targeting $150,000. For the moment, the "Iran war" narrative is weighing heavy on the markets, keeping the $70,000 ceiling firmly in place. However, with Michael Saylor and Anthony Pompliano continuing to buy the sell-off, the "floor" for Bitcoin may be higher than many skeptics realize. Market participants should watch the $65,000 support level closely. A daily close above $70,000 remains the key to unlocking the next phase of the bull market. Original Post
