Bitcoin looks to have been rejected from the $71K level - far short of the last pivot high at $74K. Is this a definitive lower high and a pullback to much lower levels, or can the bulls still turn this around and make that higher high that is needed to continue turning the downward trend back around? Bitcoin still rolling over Source: TradingView As the conflict in the Middle East enters its 12th day the US stock market is still holding up, but will Bitcoin do the same? As things stand, after the surge out of the descending channel and up to $74,000 , it is not looking like Bitcoin will lead global markets out of their current period of sideways uncertainty. Since then, the $BTC price has come back down to retest the top of the channel, but has so far failed to get near that $74K pivot high. There is still time, but if the bulls are unable to defend the major $69,000 horizontal support , Bitcoin could be the canary in the coalmine that leads global markets into a downward leg, especially if the war does not go well for the US. If the major support does fail, the next ports of call could be $67,600 and $65,800, the latter probably coinciding with the top of the descending channel. A break to the upside would need to push through the descending minor trendline and the $71K horizontal resistance. This would then leave the path open to a potential higher high above $74K. Ominous looking bear flag forming Source: TradingView Out into the daily time frame an ominous looking bear flag is still in the process of forming. There could be one more surge to the upside from the $BTC price but if this is rejected at the top trendline of the flag, this would be a real concern. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) could provide resistance to a surge, and the 100-day SMA is snaking down the descending trendline of the big falling channel . This is also likely to provide resistance if the price were to get up to the top of this channel. $48K bear flag target, with potential bottom at $40K? Source: TradingView Zooming out into the weekly time frame we can see the possible damage if the current bull flag breaks down. The bear market is starting to take shape. The $BTC price has come down to the extent of the measured move out of the first bear flag, and now another bear flag is forming. This is very much following the pattern of the fall from the top of the 2021 bull market. If this current bear flag plays out, the measured move this time would be down to around $48,000, as shown by the green arrow in the chart above. This does correspond with a support level, but that’s not to say that the fall would end there. If this follows the last bear market pattern, there would still be some more sideways and downwards movement to come from there. $40,000 is starting to look like a logical bottom. There are still some rays of hope in the form of the Stochastic RSI which has reached rock bottom and has the indicators turned upwards . And also in the RSI, which recently had its indicator matching the bottom for the 2021 bear market. Of course, both indicators could turn back around. The main takeaway, especially for the long-term investors, is that a bottom is in sight. Although it just might be further down than most were thinking. The key is probably the current bear flag. This will need to be watched closely. Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
