Another week and another milestone for Kalshi. This past week, the prediction market platform processed its highest weekly volume across politics, macro, crypto and geopolitical event contracts, with zero sports counted. The growth in non-sports volumes on Kalshi has been staggering when you look at the numbers. One year ago, this number stood at $35.2 million. At $1 billion now, this equates to a roughly 28x growth in twelve months. This data comes in at a time when the easiest critique of Kalshi was that the platform was basically a regulated sportsbook with extra steps. The $1 billion figure also puts the competitive picture back into focus. Polymarket, which has historically been the non-sports prediction market, processed $442.3 million in weekly non-sports volume over the same period. Kalshi’s non-sports book is now more than 2.2x larger than Polymarket’s, a figure that seemed inconceivable even a month ago. The Lane Polymarket Used to Own The competitive picture in the prediction market space was pretty neatly divided over the past year. The numbers showed that Kalshi was seen as the platform for sports contracts while Polymarket was in control of everything else. In fact, data from Artemis shows that Polymarket held the dominance in volume without sports up until the last week of April. Q1 of this year saw Polymarket drawing $16.8 billion in volume without sports compared to Kalshi’s $5.5 billion. The trend, however, has drastically shifted since May. Two weeks into May and Kalshi is now on top here by processing $1.7 billion compared to Polymarkets $688.9 million. Kalshi is currently running 2.5x ahead in the category Polymarket built its name on. What’s Driving the Growth The mix is broad rather than concentrated. Macro contracts tied to Fed decisions, CPI prints and rate calls have been a steady producer through the year. The Iran conflict that ran through late February and March pulled in heavy geopolitical event volume, including the Khamenei ouster market that Kalshi eventually froze with $77 million in disputed positions still unpaid. Political markets are starting to ramp up ahead of the 2026 midterms, with the LA Mayor race, California Governor and House control contracts each pulling meaningful flow. Crypto markets around BTC and ETH price levels are growing as traders use them as binary hedges instead of options. Tarek Mansour, Kalshi’s CEO, has been blunt about the long-term goal of financializing everything . Last week is the first real piece of evidence that the non-sports side of the platform might actually support that thesis without the NFL doing the heavy lifting. Why It Matters Now Kalshi just closed a $1 billion Series F at a $22 billion valuation , led by Coatue. The pitch leaned on annualized trading volume hitting $178 billion and institutional flow rising 800% in six months. Sports volume helps that headline number, but it is also where every state-level legal challenge lives. More than half a dozen states including Nevada, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Arizona and Wisconsin have moved against Kalshi’s sports product through cease-and-desist orders, injunctions or active lawsuits. The non-sports book sits outside that crosshair. With the 2026 midterms approaching, the FIFA World Cup starting in June and 2028 presidential markets already drawing open interest, the question is whether $1 billion in non-sports weekly volume becomes the new floor or a one-week spike tied to the macro calendar. Sports gave Kalshi its scale. The non-sports number is what tells you the company might survive what comes after it. If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter .
