Summary Strategy is my preferred public Bitcoin vehicle: Saylor compounds BTC per share while institutions, companies, and sovereigns move toward Bitcoin collateral. The stock has reset from ~$470 to ~$135, but the thesis has not; I hold a hedged 10% pro forma stake because great assets are owned before they bloom. The risk is Bitcoin failing as non-sovereign collateral, yet adoption is now real: ~1.90M BTC held by 188 entities, including Strategy and the U.S. reserve. Since my last Strategy ( MSTR ) analysis , the stock is up by nearly 10% in price. I bought the majority of my stake at about $125/share recently. This might not be ultra deep value, but it is undervaluation in a hyper-compounding megatrend of institutional adoption, blockchain security, and tech-beta growth reflexivity. I'm bullish on Bitcoin, and I'm an intrinsic value investor. Yes, both can be true at the same time. I sold the initial profit in the rally through April for about +50%, which is quite good for a few months' holding. But I am still retaining the majority of the stake at about 10% of pro forma capital, which includes multi-portfolio positioning, the whole of which is secured by Nasdaq-100 ( QQQM ) put options. I also have 35% in cash to execute deep value buys if (or when) the AI euphoria market resets. Most of my holdings are in reasonably valued equities with growth positioning across industries, protecting the portfolio from downside risk while also exposing it to upside. My portfolio is far from dangerous; it is risk-averse, secure, institutional, and hedged powerfully. Bitcoin reflects my only non-fundamental holding, and I weight it large because I have enough evidence of the long-term demand. I choose to get my exposure through Strategy stock because I consider the Founder & Executive Chairman Michael Saylor to be a great steward in accumulating Bitcoin per share incrementally over the long term. Why I'm Staying Strong and Won't Quit on You Most romances come and go, but a few are lifelong. Bitcoin will very much be this for me. Even in its moments of failure, or seeming betrayal, the thesis is too strong for me to ignore. Real commitment only requires the conviction to know that there is something truly magical here; it is rare. In 2016, Strategy stock was just over $15 per share. At its recent peak, it reached ~$470. The stock is now trading at only about $135 per share. This is still cheap enough to accumulate in my opinion. The stock price is under the 200-week moving average. My only caveat is that you must be willing to tolerate short-term downside before the next massive cyclical upward surge. If you do not hold the patience and the conviction, you will miss out. Strategy recently sold 0.004% of its 843,706 Bitcoin holdings, which changed its "never sell Bitcoin narrative" a tiny bit, but the long-term thesis is very much intact. Accumulate overwhelmingly, and adjust exposure tactically. Let's get clear on what Strategy is; it's a Bitcoin treasury company, and in my opinion, it's the best one in the world. The proceeds of its recent sale are expected to fund preferred-stock distributions. I am not opposed to this, and I will reiterate, I trust Saylor's strategy. The great thing about great management is you don't have to micromanage them as a shareholder or analyst. You can just let them cook. That's the way it should be. In a world that has become more multipolar, there is real reason to believe that Bitcoin may emerge as one of the leading non-sovereign stores of value. In simple terms, gold is the old-world neutral reserve asset, but Bitcoin is the digital-era neutral reserve asset. In other words, Bitcoin is digitizing monetary neutrality. It's attractive at base for that reason, but it has much more bullish qualities related to tech-market correlation, and expansive cyclical swings that can be traded in and out of, unlike gold's more non-volatile compounding nature in multipolar resurgence (and hence lower return for trading and volatility positioning). Also, gold is not cheap at all by any means. I see moderate 10-15% annual returns as the optimistic base case, but would not be surprised to see gold reset significantly even while Bitcoin soon explodes higher. How Do You Time Your Entry Perfectly? You don't wait for a perfect time to enter a trade. If you wait too long, you will miss the major moves. What you want is evidence of strong management, evidence of strong growth, and a good valuation. Once you have identified this, it is often far better to be on the early side rather than the late side. Once the equity starts to rocket up, it becomes far less approachable. You also lose the magic of being able to say, "I got it before it bloomed." Just think about all of the early Bitcoin adopters. Under an aggressive and ideal early-market adoption of Bitcoin, buying 5-10% of reported daily Bitcoin spot volume from the first robust July 2010 trading data could have seen a $100,000 investment accumulate up to approximately 350,000 Bitcoin by March-April 2011. At $66,738 per Bitcoin today, the $100,000 would have turned into up to approximately $23.5 billion in June 2026. Please note, this is my independent calculation, and I have fact-checked it rigorously. If you waited until 2016 to invest the $100,000 in Bitcoin, the total return would be +14,761.38%; you would have turned $100,000 into $14,861,380. That's a big difference, and I hope you can see why it is better to be early than late. Once you have a winner, it's also wise to hold on. Some positions, just like people, you marry. And you don't marry the price or the wedding, you marry the soul of the asset, and the soul of a person. Weddings come and go. A lot of people have married wrong stock positions, and a lot of people have married wrong people. You only need to get it right once. BTCUSD One-Week-Intervals Price Chart Since Inception (Author's Chart) You Are Stronger Than the Risks You Ought to Overcome I will focus on the core risk here because the others related to MSTR's operating structure I have discussed in detail before. Moreover, I do trust Strategy's management to continue to maintain the treasury structure prudently. The primary notion that you must consider, and must come to terms with, is that Bitcoin could never become a durable non-sovereign reserve asset used by institutions, companies, or countries as long-term collateral. If that trajectory fades, Bitcoin remains a convex, tech-correlated liquidity trade. That doesn't completely erode the long-term return thesis, but it diminishes it from fortress cyclical compounder into a tech-correlation vehicle that isn't as legendary as its full potential. In such an instance, Strategy's capital-markets flywheel may become harder to justify, and its premium over Bitcoin may diminish. To be clear though, I think we have enough evidence that the reserve-asset trend is going to continue. I think it is far too fearful, and a major wasted opportunity, to turn away Bitcoin with so much institutional backing right now. Bitcoin has proven itself. The question is, are you brave enough to participate? 188 tracked entities now hold about 1.90M Bitcoin, which is about 9% of supply. Strategy owns 843,706 Bitcoin, Metaplanet ( MTPLF ) ( MPJPY ) owns 40,177 Bitcoin, Block ( XYZ ) owns 9,299 Bitcoin , and Tesla ( TSLA ) owns 11,509 Bitcoin. Even the U.S. now has a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve . Adoption is therefore moving from ETF rails to corporate treasuries and some sovereign balance sheets. Bitcoin is still early, and Bitcoin is for the bold and the fearless. Conclusion: Strong Buy Today's entry may not be perfect, but you don't need perfect timing. You need the grit to endure some turbulence before liftoff. This is not a 1-year, a 3-year, or a 5-year trade. This is an asset worth marrying for a lifetime. Bitcoin is dangerous, but it is in capable hands. Where could it be in a few years? If we simply follow the trend of all-time highs, around $180,000 per Bitcoin is surely reasonable. And remember, if Bitcoin rips 3x, Strategy rips 9x. That's the power of the company that Saylor has pioneered.
