Summary I maintain that the ProShares Bitcoin ETF remains in a bear market, with another significant drop likely before a bottom forms. Historic bitcoin cycles suggest the current bear market, now seven months old, may persist until around September 2026. Technical analysis points to a possible mini rally toward $80K, but another decline—potentially into the $40K range—remains probable. WNTR offers high weekly distributions to benefit from the remainder of bitcoin's bear market. I informed investors back in December 2025 that owners of the ProShares Bitcoin ETF ( BITO ) and bitcoin related investments should consider a strategy shift. My reasoning was that the bull market ended and that we entered a possible year-long bear market from the peak bitcoin price from early October 2025. BITO did decline about 21% since that article was written. There is some consolation for long-term BITO holders as the total decline when distributions are factored in was 15.4%. My thesis for this article is that bitcoin is only about halfway through the bear market and that another large drop could occur before the bottom is in. Where We Are In The Bear Market The reason why I think we are about half of the way through the bear market is because bitcoin's bull and bear markets have been consistent in length. Each price cycle since Bitcoin's conception ended in bear markets that lasted approximately one year . This is followed by a bull market, which typically lasts for about three years. Since we are currently in the seventh month of the bear market, this bear market could end approximately in September 2026. The bear market could be a little shorter or a bit longer, but one-year is a good approximation based on the past trends. Bitcoin's Weekly Chart Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Weekly Price Chart w/ RSI & MACD (TradingView) Bitcoin's weekly chart above shows two bear flag formations since the price peaked in October 2025. The current bear flag should result in another significant drop, perhaps down to the $40Ks. The previous two declines since the peak price were significant at about 36% and 39%. So, the next drop could take us into the $40Ks if we get a similar drop. Of course, this depends on what price the decline occurs from. Bitcoin's price could rise to about $80K within the flag formation of this bear flag. The price did recently recover from an oversold condition according to the RSI indicator. The MACD looks like it is about to cross above the red signal line. So, we could see a mini rally up to about $80K. However, given the length of bitcoin's bear markets, I would expect the stock to make another significant drop before the bottom is in. If we look back at the previous price cycle, bitcoin experienced three bear flags before the price recovered back to a bull market. So, I think another bear flag is likely to form within the next couple of months. The previous price cycle bottomed after forming a bullish divergence between the RSI and bitcoin's price. The bullish divergence occurs when the price makes a lower low, while the RSI makes a higher low. Bitcoin could be setting up a similar situation. This would occur if the price makes another low (below the $60K level), while the RSI makes a higher low above the 26 to 27 level. If a bullish divergence forms, it could indicate the bottom for this current price cycle. Strategy For The Bear Market's 2nd Half For those investors who don't wish to short bitcoin, you could consider dollar-cost averaging into BITO, another bitcoin-related ETF, or into bitcoin itself. This would take the guesswork out of trying to time the bottom. Investors could buy BITO or a bitcoin ETF of their choice at regular intervals (i.e., every week or every month). This will allow you to build your position while benefitting from the lower prices as compared to the peak price from early October 2025. By dollar cost averaging into bitcoin or BITO now, you are likely to benefit from the bull market which may begin around September or October 2026. That estimation is based on the consistency of bitcoin's bear markets which I discussed earlier. For those who are comfortable with shorting bitcoin, an interesting ETF is the YieldMax MSTR Short Option Income Strategy ETF ( WNTR ). This is a short play on Strategy ( MSTR ) which is highly levered to bitcoin. Strategy declined about 90% in the last bitcoin bear market. So, a similar decline could occur during this bear market. WNTR pays a generous weekly distribution. The price doesn't even need to rise much, because the benefit comes from the weekly payouts. WNTR currently has a trailing 12 month yield of 97%. WNTR vs. Bitcoin, BITO, IBIT (TradingView) The chart above shows the daily chart for WNTR as compared to bitcoin, IBIT, and BITO. The chart was adjusted for distribution payments. It is clear that WNTR significantly outperformed the long bitcoin plays since the October 2025 peak BTC-USD price. My expectations are that WNTR will continue to outperform the long bitcoin plays until about September 2026. Of course, there are likely to be some short-term fluctuations in price. Bitcoin does tend to have small rallies within its bear markets. The next significant leg down for bitcoin could occur any time now. I'm basing this on the consistency of the patterns of bitcoin's four-year price cycles. This time will probably have similar patterns to the past price action. Risks to the Investment Thesis It is possible that the bear market for bitcoin is much shorter than it was in the past price cycles. There is no guarantee that this bear market will last for about one year as they did in past cycles. Bitcoin could begin the next bull market at any time which would prove my thesis to be incorrect. This uncertainty makes timing the market much more risky. So, some investors may prefer to hold or dollar cost average into bitcoin to reduce risk. Final Thoughts I'm sticking with my thesis that bitcoin's bear market will continue to about September 2026. As a result, I will continue to hold WNTR and look to shift to a bitcoin-related long position around that time. If something happens to invalidate my thesis, then I'll consider making the shift sooner. The good news for bitcoin holders is that the bear markets have tended to make less percentage declines in each price cycle. With the last bear decline being about 78% in the last price cycle, we could experience a smaller percentage decline this time—perhaps a 70% to 75% decline. This would take the price down to about $31,500 to $38,000. Of course the total percentage decline could be more or less than that. Time will tell.
