Bitcoin (BTC) has started to recover back around $78,000, and market expert Ali Martinez says this move could mean the sell-off phase is already behind us, with the potential for a bullish move that might take the price back near $100,000. In a Thursday social media post, Martinez suggested that Bitcoin may have found its bottom, pointing to three major signs that, in his view, support a bullish transition into recovery rather than another leg lower. Why Bitcoin Could Be Past The Chaos One of the clearest items Martinez highlighted was Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio, which he said fell to −43, a level that typically reflects a risk-off market stance. Yet, he added that the metric has since rebounded to roughly 20.35, signaling that the extreme volatility and uncertainty of the earlier stage may be cooling. For Martinez, that improvement matters because it suggests the market has already “processed” much of the chaos and is now moving toward conditions that are more favorable on a risk-adjusted basis. The second signal in his framework was Supply Concentration, specifically through what he referred to as the Percentage Realized Cap. Martinez said that this measure has dropped below 7%, which he described as historically important. When the percentage is this low, he argued, it usually points to low retail activity—quiet demand from newer participants—and a market that is more concentrated among longer-term owners. He also said that in previous market cycles, readings like this have served as a bottoming signal, implying that selling pressure may have largely run its course and that the market’s value is being held by participants less likely to capitulate. Hold For $96,000, Lose For $55,000 The third element Martinez focused on was what he called the Confidence Meter, using the Inter-exchange Flow Pulse. This indicator tracks Bitcoin movement between spot markets and derivative platforms. Martinez’s interpretation was that current flow trends show BTC moving toward derivatives, which he framed as a sign of rising conviction among traders. In his explanation, investors often shift coins to derivatives venues to use them as collateral for leveraged long positions. That kind of repositioning, he said, typically reflects expectations that prices will move higher. To wrap up his bottom in argument, Martinez tied the picture together with MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Pricing Bands. He said Bitcoin has successfully claimed the −0.5 band, which he stated is currently sitting near $73,700. In this model, that level becomes the key pivot point for the current trend. Martinez laid out what happens next in simple terms: as long as $73,700 holds as support, the idea is that Bitcoin may revert back toward the mean, which he described as being around $96,000. But he also explained the invalidation condition. If Bitcoin loses the $73,700 support level, he said the bullish bottom thesis would likely fail, and price could slide back toward its realized price near $55,000. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
